ARK Invest models $2.7 trillion profit from a Tesla-SpaceX merger
SpaceX · Tesla
Per ARK Invest: a Tesla-SpaceX merger within five years could hit $2.7 trillion in 2031 operating profit.
what happened
ARK Invest, led on this research by analyst Tasha Keeney, published a report modeling a Tesla-SpaceX merger occurring within the next five years, estimating the combined company could generate $3.8 trillion in revenue and $2.7 trillion in operating profit by 2031, with SpaceX contributing 62% of revenue and 69% of operating profit, per Yahoo Finance and TradingView's write-ups of the report. ARK's own base case still models Tesla as a standalone business reaching a $4,400 share price by 2031, about 1,095% above current levels, with robotaxis accounting for roughly 80% of that projected enterprise value.
why it matters
ARK is the fourth major investor voice to publish its own math on the Tesla-SpaceX merger speculation since the two companies' boards began formally reviewing a combination, after Barclays, RBC and Scott Galloway's public skepticism; each models a different split and premium, none of them SpaceX's or Tesla's own position. ARK's specific thesis, that Tesla's robotaxi cash flow could fund SpaceX's orbital data centers while SpaceX's AI models support Optimus, gives investors and dealmakers watching the speculation a concrete synergy argument to test against, not just a valuation multiple.
signal-to-noise
quick facts
- Companies
- SpaceX, Tesla
- Category
- financial
- Impact
- notable
- SNR
- 4 / 5
- Event date
- 2026-10-29
- Published
- 2026-10-30 05:27 UTC