Sequoia's Maguire models SpaceX revenue at $274B in 2027, $731B in 2028
Per Sequoia's Shaun Maguire: SpaceX revenue could reach $274B in 2027, $731B in 2028, more than double Wall Street's estimate.
what happened
Shaun Maguire, a Sequoia Capital partner, published a bottoms-up financial model of SpaceX on X on Oct. 30, built after the company's third-quarter earnings call, projecting total revenue of about $51.5 billion in 2026, $273.8 billion in 2027, and $731.1 billion in 2028, per Dealroom's writeup of the model. The model assumes SpaceX ramps to 250 Starship flights in 2028, up from 2 this year and 38 next year, with most of the growth coming from AI/compute lines (orbital compute, Starship-enabled data centers, a Terafab line) rather than core launch or Starlink. Maguire disclosed in his post that Sequoia holds a large SpaceX stake and called the estimate biased; Musk replied to the post, "I think we can do better."
why it matters
Maguire's model puts SpaceX's 2027 revenue at more than double the roughly $110 billion Wall Street consensus cited by CNBC/LSEG, arguing investors are underestimating SpaceX's compute business the way they underestimated Nvidia three years ago, per Futu's independent writeup of the same model. The estimate is Sequoia's own bet talking, not SpaceX guidance: the company's own Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $33-37 billion already runs above the $22.2 billion consensus for that quarter, but nowhere near Maguire's annualized figures. For anyone pricing SpaceX's AI-compute ambitions, Maguire's framework, treating Starship flights as compute-capacity units rather than launch events, is now a concrete number to test against Wall Street's models.
for who
Space-sector investors and analysts modeling SpaceX's compute business
signal-to-noise
quick facts
- Companies
- SpaceX
- Category
- financial
- Impact
- notable
- SNR
- 4 / 5
- Event date
- 2026-10-30
- Published
- 2026-11-02 05:26 UTC